Migration in Natividade da Serra/SP (2017–2022)

Natividade da Serra/SP had a reference population (aged 5 or over in 2022) of 6,610 people. In the 2017–2022 five-year period, the municipality received 1,040 in-migrants and lost 250 out-migrants to other municipalities in Brazil, resulting in a net migration of +790 people (119.38 per 1,000 population) and a migration effectiveness index (IEM) of 0.612. This classifies the municipality, for the period, as one of migratory attraction.

Indicators

Migration indicators for Natividade da Serra/SP, 2017–2022
Indicator	Estimate	95% CI	Precision
In-migrants	1,040	876 to 1,204	good
Out-migrants	250	108 to 392	use with caution
Net migration	+790	574 to 1,006	not classified
Net migration rate, TLM (per 1,000 pop.)	119.38	-	-
Migration effectiveness index (IEM)	0.612	-	-

Sample of in-migrants: 100-499 observations. Sample of out-migrants: 20-49 observations. 95% confidence interval computed as estimate ± 1.96 × standard error.

Top origins and destinations

Top 10 origins of in-migrants to Natividade da Serra/SP
Origin	People	Precision
Taubaté/SP · view pair in the atlas	250	use with caution
Caraguatatuba/SP · view pair in the atlas	205	use with caution
São José dos Campos/SP · view pair in the atlas	85	use with caution
Ubatuba/SP · view pair in the atlas	80	use with caution
São Luiz do Paraitinga/SP · view pair in the atlas	60	low precision
Redenção da Serra/SP · view pair in the atlas	55	low precision
São Paulo/SP · view pair in the atlas	55	use with caution
São Sebastião/SP · view pair in the atlas	50	low precision
Tremembé/SP · view pair in the atlas	20	low precision
Paraibuna/SP · view pair in the atlas	20	low precision

Top 10 destinations of out-migrants from Natividade da Serra/SP
Destination	People	Precision
Taubaté/SP · view pair in the atlas	110	low precision
Caraguatatuba/SP · view pair in the atlas	55	low precision
São Luiz do Paraitinga/SP · view pair in the atlas	25	low precision
Lagoinha/SP · view pair in the atlas	15	low precision

Profile of migrants and residents

In-migrants (arrivals)

Migrant type
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
First move from municipality of birth	525	50.5%	100-499
Multi-step migration	410	39.4%	100-499
Return to municipality of birth	105	10.1%	20-49

Educational attainment (people aged 25 and over)
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
No schooling or incomplete elementary	300	42.3%	100-499
Completed high school, incomplete higher education	205	28.9%	50-99
Completed elementary, incomplete high school	130	18.3%	20-49
Completed higher education	75	10.6%	20-49

Household income per capita (in 2022 minimum wages)
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
½ to 1 minimum wage	345	33.2%	100-499
¼ to ½ minimum wage	255	24.5%	50-99
1 to 2 minimum wages	170	16.3%	50-99
Up to ¼ of a minimum wage	150	14.4%	20-49
More than 2 minimum wages	115	11.1%	20-49
Other / suppressed	5	0.5%	<5

Age and sex
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
Ages 40–59, male	165	15.9%	50-99
Ages 25–39, female	130	12.5%	20-49
Ages 5–14, male	120	11.5%	20-49
Ages 25–39, male	115	11.1%	20-49
Ages 40–59, female	115	11.1%	20-49
Ages 60 and over, male	105	10.1%	20-49
Ages 60 and over, female	85	8.2%	20-49
Ages 5–14, female	85	8.2%	20-49
Ages 15–24, female	65	6.2%	20-49
Ages 15–24, male	55	5.3%	5-19

Out-migrants (departures)

Migrant type
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
Multi-step migration	145	58.0%	20-49
Return to municipality of birth	60	24.0%	5-19
First move from municipality of birth	45	18.0%	5-19

Educational attainment (people aged 25 and over)
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
No schooling or incomplete elementary	50	31.2%	5-19
Other / suppressed	40	25.0%	<5
Completed high school, incomplete higher education	40	25.0%	5-19
Completed higher education	30	18.8%	5-19

Household income per capita (in 2022 minimum wages)
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
½ to 1 minimum wage	110	44.0%	5-19
¼ to ½ minimum wage	65	26.0%	5-19
1 to 2 minimum wages	45	18.0%	5-19
Other / suppressed	30	12.0%	5-19

Age and sex
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
Other / suppressed	145	58.0%	20-49
Ages 5–14, female	35	14.0%	5-19
Ages 40–59, male	35	14.0%	5-19
Ages 40–59, female	25	10.0%	5-19
Ages 25–39, female	10	4.0%	5-19

Non-migrant residents

Educational attainment (people aged 25 and over)
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
No schooling or incomplete elementary	2,500	59.4%	>=500
Completed high school, incomplete higher education	880	20.9%	100-499
Completed elementary, incomplete high school	570	13.5%	100-499
Completed higher education	260	6.2%	50-99

Household income per capita (in 2022 minimum wages)
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
½ to 1 minimum wage	2,260	37.9%	>=500
¼ to ½ minimum wage	1,505	25.3%	>=500
1 to 2 minimum wages	1,150	19.3%	100-499
Up to ¼ of a minimum wage	570	9.6%	100-499
More than 2 minimum wages	470	7.9%	100-499
Other / suppressed	5	0.1%	<5

Age and sex
Category	Estimate	Share	Sample
Ages 40–59, male	905	16.3%	100-499
Ages 40–59, female	815	14.6%	100-499
Ages 60 and over, male	815	14.6%	100-499
Ages 60 and over, female	675	12.1%	100-499
Ages 25–39, female	500	9.0%	100-499
Ages 25–39, male	495	8.9%	100-499
Ages 5–14, female	355	6.4%	100-499
Ages 15–24, female	345	6.2%	100-499
Ages 5–14, male	345	6.2%	100-499
Ages 15–24, male	315	5.7%	100-499

Commuting (work and study)

Commuting indicators for Natividade da Serra/SP
Employed persons (aged 10 and over)	2,750
Commute out to work in another municipality	185
Commute in from another municipality to work here	125
Net commuting	−60
Out-commuting rate (%)	6.64
Commuting attraction index	0.972
Median commuting time	60 min

This municipality is part of Região Metropolitana do Vale do Paraíba e Litoral Norte → see the metropolitan region page

Open Natividade da Serra/SP in the interactive atlas →

Methodological note

Estimates from the sample microdata of the 2022 Demographic Census (IBGE, controlled access), fixed-date migration question (residence on July 31, 2017 compared with residence on July 31, 2022). Every estimate is rounded to multiples of 5 and has passed statistical disclosure control (no cell with fewer than 5 people or 3 sampled households). See the full methodology and the glossary.

How to cite this page

Daniel Pessini Sobreira. Atlas da migração interna no Brasil [Atlas of internal migration in Brazil]: Natividade da Serra/SP. Data from the 2022 Demographic Census (IBGE). Data version: 2026-10-01. Available at: https://atlas-da-migracao.github.io/en/municipio/natividade-da-serra-sp-3532306/. Dataset DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22469791.